NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Forever Young looks to give Japan first Kentucky Derby win. Why he could be colt to do it

Horses from Japan have NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerenjoyed worldwide success the past few years in the Breeders’ Cup, Saudi Cup, Dubai World Cup and other events, but the Kentucky Derby has been another story.

It’s a small sample size, but Japan-breds are 0-for-4 in the Run for the Roses since 2019, with Master Fencer (2019) and Derma Sotogake (2023) sharing the best finishes at sixth place.

Forever Young carries Japan’s hopes this year, and many believe the undefeated colt gives the country its best chance ever in the Kentucky Derby.

Several oddsmakers have him as the No. 3 choice in the May 4 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone.

“He’s a very unique horse,” jockey Ryusei Sakai said Wednesday, through interpreter Kate Hunter. “Up to this point he’s never been beaten. Ever since he won the Zennippon Nisai Yushun in December in Kawasaki, they’ve been focused on coming here to the Kentucky Derby. … Between that and his experiences this year and the horse’s talent, we’re pretty hopeful.”

Sakai spoke Wednesday morning outside of Quarantine Barn 1, where Forever Young has been since arriving at Churchill Downs on April 13. He breezed six furlongs Wednesday morning in 1:19.60 and also schooled at the starting gate.

“The exact type of breeze that we needed to do this far out from the race,” said Sakai, adding that the horse is scheduled to breeze next Thursday as well.

A son of Japan-bred Real Steel, Forever Young has won five races at five different tracks — three in Japan, one in Saudi Arabia and one in the United Arab Emirates.

He clinched his spot in the Kentucky Derby by winning the $1 million, Group 2 UAE Derby on March 30 at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai by 2 lengths.

Trainer Yoshito Yahagi dedicated the victory to his father, who had died in Japan just hours before the race, Sakai said. “You can get him to go, and after he pulls up he cools off quite fast.”

Hunter, also a Japanese consultant for Churchill Downs, praised Louisville trainer Dale Romans with providing an assist during training the past week.

Romans has provided training mates for Forever Young, including Cuffed Candy during Wednesday’s breeze.

“In horse racing, the trainer fraternity is a big deal,” Romans said. “We have to compete with one another every day, and we might not agree with each other all the time. But we do work together.”

Romans said Forever Young is a legitimate contender.

“Derby winners can come from anywhere,” Romans said. “Maybe it’s this horse. He’s really good. They’re winning all over the world. Why not here? They’ve really upped their game.”

Forever Young is one of two Japan-breds expected to compete in this year’s Derby. T O Password — 2-for-2 in his young career — earned a spot via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby and is scheduled to arrive at Churchill on Friday.

Sakai, 26, was scheduled to make his Kentucky Derby debut last year, but his mount, Continuar, was scratched two days before the race.

Sakai is looking forward to his chance to make Forever Young a legend in Japan.

“This is the biggest race in the United States, and it’s one of the ones Japan hasn’t won yet,” he said. “They’re always very, very keen to see us come out on top and become a champion horse — not just in Japan but in America as well.”

Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; [email protected]. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.